Currency banks follow the following so as to anchor expectations in terms of nominal price level or inflation rate. These anchors establish a stable relationship with inflation over time, with the aim of stabilizing both expectations and actual inflation. Common nominal anchors include the gold standard, exchange rate targets, money supply targets, and since the 1990s, direct official inflation targets. Additionally, various proposed types have also been suggested by economic researchers, such as price level targets, which are coupled with an inflation target, and nominal income targets. The discipline of these anchors promotes economic stability by providing clear signals to private agents about inflation in relation to monetary policy, thereby creating monitoring and confidence.
Countries such as New Zealand pioneered inflation targeting, and since the 1990s many nations, such as Australia, Canada, Chile, Sweden, and the United States, have adopted this framework. As of 2022, 45 economies have achieved inflation targets. Although the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank do not officially label themselves inflation targeters, they follow a similar strategy. As a result, inflation targeting has become the dominant monetary policy framework globally.
Critics claim that inflation targeting may have unintended consequences, such as encouraging increases in housing prices and exacerbating wealth inequalities by increasing fairness. Despite these criticisms, inflation targeting is widely considered effective in controlling inflation and providing transparency in monetary policy decision making. Central banks review and adjust interest rate targets in response to economic indicators to keep inflation within desired limits and propel the economy toward stability and growth.
Fixed Exchange Rate Targeting
Fixed exchange rate targeting is a monetary policy strategy that involves the process of maintaining a set exchange rate with a predetermined foreign currency. This approach can be characterized by difficulty, the variety of which ranges from commercial fixed rates to fixed usage and currency board systems.
In commercially fixed rates, the exchange rate is declared but not fixed through currency interventions. Instead, non-exchanges such as capital controls are used to enforce the exchange rate, which makes the exchange rate effective, leading to the existence of a black market exchange rate. On the other hand, in fixed use systems there is regular buying and selling of currency by the central bank to keep the exchange rate within a prescribed range or level.
Currency boards take a more strict approach that requires each local currency unit to be backed by a foreign currency unit, thereby preventing the rising price of the local currency from eroding the monetary base of the local currency. Dollarization, where a foreign currency (often the United States dollar) is adopted as the dominant currency, can serve as a fixed exchange rate mechanism to stabilize monetary policy and control inflation.
According to the relative currency purchasing power principle (PPP), the home country’s inflation rate is influenced by the inflation rate of the foreign currency and the depreciation rate of its currency against the anchor currency. In a fixed exchange rate regime, the devaluation rate is usually set to zero, thereby matching the home country’s inflation rate to the anchor nation’s inflation rate.
Many emerging economies choose fixed exchange rate regimes to maintain price stability and control inflation, with Denmark being a prominent exception among OECD members. However, these policies often break ties with the anchor nation in order to maintain the anchor nation’s inflation rate, as the pegging country’s monetary decisions need to match those of the anchor nation. The foundation of this relationship depends on factors such as accountability, economic strength and credit channels, taking into account the core strength of the anchor nation. Overall, fixed exchange rate targeting remains a popular approach, especially in emerging economies in search of price stability and inflation control.
Money Supply Targeting
Period In the 1980s, under the influence of the principles of monetarism, many countries adopted money supply targeting as a monetary policy trend. This method set a constant growth rate for currency and credit of various denominations, with the aim of achieving price stability in the long term. This idea was based in the theory of price determination, which postulates a relationship between the money supply, inflation, and real output growth. The equation π = μ − g, where π represents the inflation rate, μ represents the money supply growth rate, and g represents the real output growth rate, reflecting the convention that controlling money supply growth ensures price stability. Can be obtained.
However, despite its theoretical attractiveness, the practical implementation of money supply targeting faces challenges. The relationship between inflation, economic activity, and measures of money growth proved to be unstable, leading to a weakening effect over time. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve led by Alan Greenspan, gradually moved away from this approach. After the 1980s, central banks began to focus on other monetary policy strategies.
By 2022, the International Monetary Fund reported that 25 economies, primarily emerging economies, targeted some form of currency aggregate as their monetary policy framework. However, this approach is considered to be more tenuous due to its unstable relationship with actual product growth. Higher product growth rates may lead to lower manufactured inflation, while lower product growth rates may lead to higher inflation levels. Therefore, most central banks have chosen other monetary policy frameworks based on interest rates, inflation targets, or a combination of the two to better handle the complexities of modern economies.
Nominal Income/NGDP Targeting
Nominal income targeting, also known as nominal GDP or NGDP, dates back to proposals by James Mead in 1978 and James Tobin in 1980. Despite praise by Scott Sumner and proponents of the market monetarist school, no central bank has yet implemented this monetary policy. Academic studies suggest that such a policy may be more consistent with the central bank’s objectives, as research in 2018 showed. Furthermore, it has been highlighted in studies in the 2020s that it could lead to more welfare-adaptive monetary policies. This concept involves targeting nominal income or GDP levels without focusing solely on inflation or money supply. This approach takes into account real economic growth and inflation pressures. Although not yet implemented, nominal income targeting has received attention among economists and policymakers for its potential benefits.
Price level Targeting
Price level target control is a monetary policy that attempts to maintain a constant movement of the currency to a target, usually over a time period such as five years. If the consumer price index (CPI) deviates from the long-term target in one year, policies in subsequent years are adjusted to offset the difference. This strategy provides consumers with greater certainty about future price increases. Unlike the inflation target, the price level target takes past performance into account and redirects policy toward the desired trend of the cumulative price level. By taking past performance into account, it attempts to establish price stability and promote long-term economic forecasts.
Nominal Anchors and Exchange Rate Regimes
Nominal anchors serve as reference points in the context of monetary policy, which guide central banks in achieving monetary policy objectives. These anchors are linked to particular exchange rate regimes, which reflect the relationship between a country’s monetary policy and the value of its currency in the international market. Linked to an exchange rate target, usually with fixed or semi-fixed exchange rate regimes. For example, countries without a currency union or their own currency resort to fixed exchange rates or peg/band/crawl to tie their currency policy to a specific exchange rate target. This ensures stability and predictability in international transactions.
Conversely, targeting the money supply is compatible with managed floating or free floating exchange rate regimes. In these systems, the central bank adjusts the money supply to influence interest rates and thereby control the currency or stabilize the economy. Managed floating allows for exchange rate intervention in certain circumstances, while free floating determines exchange rates based on market forces. Inflation targeting, often combined with interest rate policy, is also compatible with managed floating or free floating exchange rate regimes. The central bank sets the inflation target and adjusts interest rates accordingly to achieve price stability. In these arrangements, exchange rates are allowed to fluctuate based on market developments, with central bank intervention aimed at precisely managing exchange rates rather than at fixing market rates.
FAQs
1. What is nomination in monetary policy?
Monetary targets are specific targets or reference points used by a central bank to guide monetary policy. These targets are commonly named such as inflation rate, exchange rate, or monetary restraint.
2. Why is nomination important in monetary policy?
Monetary nominations help anchor the expectations of economic agents, such as businesses and consumers, and standardize policy fidelity. They are also the benchmark for evaluating the performance of the central bank.
3. What are some examples of monetary nominations?
Common examples include inflation targets, exchange rate strength, money volume targets, and price level targets. Inflation targeting is the most widely used method of maintaining inflation within a certain range in use globally.
4. How does the central bank choose its monetary nomination?
The selection of nominations depends on the central bank’s objective, current economic conditions, the country’s exchange rate regime, and the level of confidence established by the central bank.
5. What are the benefits of using inflation targeting as a monetary nomination?
Inflation targeting provides a clear and measurable objective for policy, promotes transparency and accountability, helps anchor inflation expectations, and provides flexibility to respond to other important economic objectives such as output and employment dynamics. Is.
6. Are there any drawbacks to using inflation targeting?
Detractors say that inflation targeting can focus on short-term inflation prudence to the detriment of other important economic objectives, such as financial stability or employment. Furthermore, achieving and maintaining the inflation target may provide challenges for the meaningfulness of communication, clarity of communication, and doubts in the effectiveness of new monetary nominations.
7. How does the central bank communicate its chosen monetary nomination?
The central bank communicates its chosen monetary nomination through ordinary statements, speeches by policymakers, publications (such as policy reports or policy committee minutes), and the central bank’s website. The performance of the prescribed nomination and any amendments made in the context of the policy framework are also provided to the public.
8. Can monetary nominations change over time?
Yes, monetary nominations can develop in response to changes in economic conditions, changes in policymakers’ preferences, or improvements in economic theory and understanding. The central bank inspects and reviews its nomination framework at regular intervals to improve its performance.
9. How do financial markets and the public respond to changes in monetary nominalization?
Changes in monetary nominations may have an impact on financial market expectations as a result of modifications in funds, interest rates, and exchange rates. Public reaction evaluates the central bank’s credibility, clarity of communication, and effectiveness of new monetary nominations.
10. Are there alternative solutions to nomination in monetary policy?
Some alternative approaches include nominal GDP targets, price level targets, and rules-based monetary policy frameworks. These alternatives aim to provide a stable framework for monetary policy while addressing potential limitations associated with traditional nominal anchors such as inflation targeting.