Bihar Elections 2025: Can Nitish Kumar Change Power In Delhi

The year 2025 is an important time for Indian politics, especially considering the Bihar Assembly elections. These elections are to be held on 6 and 11 November, and the results will come on 14 November. These elections can do more than just elect the Chief Minister. These have the potential to shake the entire central government in Delhi. The party currently in power, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leads a coalition named the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This alliance depends on the main allies, and if the political climate of Bihar changes, it can start a domino effect across the country, just like there were major political changes in 1979 and 1999.

Understanding The Current Balance Of Power In India

The BJP is called the governing party because it leads the NDA government. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 240 seats. However, to form a government alone, a party needs 272 seats. This means that the BJP had to rely on its allies to reach a majority.

With the support of several regional parties, the NDA’s total seats came to 293. Two main allies were important in forming the government:

Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP): TDP wins 16 seats in Andhra Pradesh. His support was very important. Without it, the NDA would have been much closer to a majority.
Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U): JD(U) won 12 seats in Bihar. His decision to join the NDA brought stability to the BJP-led government at the centre.

Other allies also increased the strength of the NDA. In Maharashtra, BJP won 9 seats. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP together added 8 more seats. These figures helped the NDA reach a total figure of 293 seats.

Comparing this to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP alone had won 303 seats, giving it a clear majority. However, in 2024, their number dropped to 240. For Narendra Modi to become Prime Minister again, the support of parties like TDP and JD(U) was necessary. This is the reason why BJP is considered a ruling party, because the government runs under its leadership.

Important Role Of Bihar In National Politics

Bihar plays a unique and strong role in the political accounting of India. The state has 243 seats in the Assembly, and a party or coalition needs at least 122 seats to form a government.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA coalition together won 125 seats. In this, BJP got 74 seats and JD (U) got 43 seats, the rest of the seats went to other smaller parties. With this support, Nitish Kumar became the Chief Minister with the support of BJP.

Bihar elections to be held in November 2025 will decide whether Nitish Kumar will be able to remain in power or not. Right now the state government is running the BJP-JD(U) alliance. But if this alliance does not achieve majority in the next election, Nitish Kumar can withdraw the support of his 12 MPs from BJP at the national level. By doing this the central government can become very weak.

Echo Of History: When Governments Fell

History shows how quickly alliances can change and governments can fall. India has seen such changes in the past too, which have affected the Prime Ministers and the stability of the country.

Charan Singh episode of 1979

After the Emergency ended in 1977, many leaders came together under the Janata Party banner. These included socialists, right-wing members, secular people and peasant leaders. In the Lok Sabha elections that year, the Congress party, which ruled for years, suffered a massive defeat, getting just 153 seats. The Janata Party made history by winning 295 seats, and Morarji Desai became Prime Minister.

However, differences soon began in the new government. Home Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, a farmer leader, clashed with Prime Minister Morarji Desai. Charan Singh felt that RSS (a Hindu nationalist organization) members within the Janata Party were pursuing their own objectives and not paying attention to the needs of farmers and the poor. He believed that the RSS had become too political, seeking power for its members instead of serving the country.

Ultimately the party broke from within. Charan Singh withdrew his support from Morarji Desai, prompting the resignation of the Prime Minister in 1979. When the monsoon session of Parliament began, Charan Singh rebelled. When a no-confidence motion was about to be moved against his government, Morarji Desai resigned.

After this Chaudhary Charan Singh sought external support from Indira Gandhi’s Congress Party, for which she agreed. Chaudhary Charan Singh became Prime Minister on 28 July 1979. However, his tenure was very short. Just six months later, during the trust vote, Indira Gandhi withdrew her support. He felt that Congress would achieve a big victory in the new elections. Chaudhary Charan Singh resigned even before the vote was held. His entire tenure lasted just 170 days.

In the 1980 elections, Congress made a landslide comeback, winning 353 seats. The Janata Party was reduced to just 31 seats, and Indira Gandhi became Prime Minister again, ending Charan Singh’s time in power.

In 1999, the Vajpayee government fell by one vote

Another historical example occurred in 1996. BJP won 161 seats, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee became Prime Minister. But he did not get the support he needed to prove majority and had to resign after just 13 days.

In 1998, re-elections were held. The BJP-led NDA got a majority, and Vajpayee once again became Prime Minister. But in 1999, his Government faced another challenge. AIADMK’s J. Jayalalitha, who was a small party, withdrew her support. When the trust vote was held in the Lok Sabha, the Vajpayee government fell by one vote. This one vote changed who led the country. These events show how important coalition partners are and how even some seats can change the course of national politics.

Nitish Kumar Factor: History Of Changing Alliance

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is known for his political flexibility. He has changed alliances several times in his career. This makes his decisions in the 2025 Bihar elections even more urgent for the National BJP.

If BJP gets less seats in Bihar elections, and if RJD-Congress alliance crosses the 122-seat mark, then it will not be a surprise for Nitish Kumar to change the alliance again. If he separates his 12 MPs from the BJP at the centre, the BJP’s National strength will be reduced.

This may affect other colleagues also. According to political experts, Chandrababu Naidu, who has 16 TDP MPs, has a history of allying with the ruling party. If BJP does not get Nitish Kumar’s support, Naidu may also withdraw his support so that his alliance remains with the party in power. A Political Analyst suggested that if the BJP had even 10 seats less in 2024, Naidu could have joined the opposition, changing the entire government.

If both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu withdraw their support, the existing 293 seats of BJP (including allies) will be significantly reduced. This will make it easier for an opposition like Congress to take other regional leaders like Ajit Pawar or Eknath Shinde away from the NDA by promising them important posts like Home Minister or Deputy PM. Such a chain reaction could quickly lead to the end of the BJP-led government.

Nitish Kumar’s Alliance History

Nitish Kumar has changed alliances six times in his political career and has served as the Chief Minister of Bihar nine times. His long career shows a pattern of changing partners according to political needs.

From 1993, JD (U) was mostly in alliance with BJP, forming NDA. Let’s take a look at their main alliance changes:

2005 elections: Nitish Kumar’s alliance with BJP wins 143 seats (JD(U) 88, BJP 55). He focused on ending the “Jungle Raj” (anarchy) of Lalu Prasad’s time, improving law and order, roads and government services. During this period, Bihar’s GDP grew by 11% between 2004 and 2009.
2010 election: The JD(U)-BJP coalition wins a major victory, winning 206 of the 243 seats (JD(U) 115, RJD 22).
Alliance breaks in 2013: Nitish Kumar was uncomfortable with BJP’s “Hindutva” agenda and Narendra Modi’s rise as a potential prime minister for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He believed that the NDA should show a secular face. After Modi was made chairperson of BJP’s campaign committee in June 2013, Nitish Kumar broke his 17-year-old alliance with BJP, saying he could not compromise on basic principles.
2014 Lok Sabha elections: Without BJP, JD(U) could win just 2 seats, up from 20 earlier. However, BJP won 22 seats in Bihar. Nitish Kumar took responsibility for the poor results and resigned from the post of CM. Jitan Ram Manjhi became the new Chief Minister.
Return to power in 2015 (with RJD and Congress): 9 months later, JD(U) asks Manjhi to resign. Manjhi sought help from Narendra Modi but failed to prove majority. Nitish Kumar became CM again in 2015, this time with the support of Congress and RJD. This was his third coalition change.
Resignation and return to NDA in 2017: Nitish Kumar resigns from his CM post due to corruption allegations against his deputy CM, Tejashwi Yadav (from RJD). When Tejashwi refused to resign, Nitish broke ties with RJD and rejoined NDA.
2020 Bihar elections: JD(U)-NDA alliance wins 125 seats, while opposition gains 110 seats. Although the NDA won, JD(U)’s seats dropped significantly compared to BJP’s better performance. Nitish Kumar accused BJP of secretly supporting LJP leader Chirag Paswan in the areas where JD(U) was contesting, which he felt was trying to weaken him.
Out of the NDA in 2022 and alliance with RJD/Congress/Left: Less than two years later, on 9 August 2022, Nitish resigned from the NDA. He joined hands with RJD, Congress and Left parties. The next day, he became CM for the eighth time, and Tejashwi Yadav again became Deputy CM.
Return to the NDA in 2024: This alliance also lasted just 18 months. In January 2024, Nitish again left this alliance, resigned as CM, and rejoined BJP on the same day.

Nitish Kumar’s constantly changing decisions show his desire to remain in power and his strategic attitude towards political alliances.

How India’s Government System Works

To understand these changes, it is important to know how government works in India at two main levels:

State level government

Elections: Every five years, people vote for the MLA (Member of Legislative Assembly). These elections are held at different times in every state.
Chief Minister (CM): The party that has the most MLAs proves its majority to the state governor. Then, the elected MLA chooses his chief minister. The public does not directly elect the CM.
State Council of Ministers: CMs form a team of ministers (Council of Ministers) to run the state.

Central (national) level government

Elections: Every five years, people vote for the MP (Member of Parliament). These elections are held at the same time in all states. For example, the last MP elections were held in 2024, and the next will be in 2029.
PM (PM): The party or coalition that has the most MP proves its majority to the president. Then they choose their Prime Minister.
Union Council of Ministers: PM forms a team of ministers (cabinet) to run the entire country.

It is important to remember that changes in state-level governments (such as a new CM or MLA) do not immediately impact the central-level MP, who completes his full five-year term.

Bihar Elections 2025: What Happens Next?

The Bihar Assembly elections scheduled for November 2025 are set to be a tough contest. BJP is still facing challenges in Bihar as it does not have a strong chief ministerial face of its own. She often depends on leaders like Nitish Kumar.

Even if the NDA alliance wins in Bihar, there is no guarantee that Nitish Kumar will become the Chief Minister for the tenth time. BJP can make someone else the Chief Minister, as it did with leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje, who won the elections for the party but were not made the Chief Minister.

RJD led by Tejashwi Yadav is full of confidence. Tejashwi claims that this will be the last election of 74-year-old Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister. However, Nitish Kumar still enjoys a lot of support in Bihar, especially among women voters. Opinion polls show that 60.4% of women will vote for the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, while Tejashwi Yadav’s coalition will get just 28.4% of the vote.

To woo these voters, Prime Minister Modi has recently launched “Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana”, which aims to give ₹10,000 to 75 lakh women. ₹7,500 crore, this plan is a major effort before the elections.

In addition, political strategist Prashant Kishor is also taking the field with his party, Jan Suraj Party (JSP), which aims to contest all 243 seats in Bihar. This has added to another difficulty in the already crowded political arena.

Conclusion

The 2025 Bihar election is more than just a state election. This is an important incident which can affect the entire central government. The BJP, which won 303 seats on its own in 2019 but dropped to 240 in 2024, is heavily reliant on its allies to stay in power. The changing loyalty of leaders like Nitish Kumar shows how weak these alliances can be.

If Bihar’s results weaken the NDA at the state level, it could see Nitish Kumar remove 12 of his MPs from the national coalition. With this, other allies like Chandrababu Naidu, who has 16 MP, may be forced to rethink about their support. If this happens, BJP’s hold on power in Delhi may face a big challenge, which will prove that even a few seats in a state can bring huge results across the country.

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